4.5 billion euros per year are needed to save French railways: SNCF will pay part of the bill, but the hole remains gaping

This is an important step for the future of rail in France. This Thursday, the State and SNCF Réseau sign the next “performance contract” which binds them. This strategic document is a detailed roadmap which sets out, over 10 years (it is updated every three years), the network maintenance and regeneration budgets, maintenance work and quality objectives to cope with the increase in demand.

“Faced with the expected strong growth in rail traffic in the coming years, the State is setting SNCF Réseau an ambitious performance contract for the period 2024-2033 in order to support the development of rail transport of passengers and goods,” explains the Ministry of Transport, which refers to a “historic” contract in terms of objectives and means. “The contract is a game-changer and marks a major shift,” says Matthieu Chabanel, CEO of SNCF Réseau. On paper, the objectives are ambitious: "meet the growing expectations of the French in terms of rail transport, by allowing an increase in the number of trains in circulation on our network: +25% traffic at the end of the contract (in particular through welcoming more players, Editor's note).

Increase investments dedicated to the regeneration and modernization of the network by 50% compared to the previous contract from 2028 to reach 4.5 billion euros per year. Adapting rail infrastructure to climate change". The essential point concerns the investments to be made to regenerate the structuring network (excluding TGV) which is on the verge of breakdown.

The contract sanctifies the increase to 4.5 billion euros per year in investments from 2028, an increase of 1.5 billion per year. “It represents an unprecedented commitment shared between the State and SNCF Réseau, in favor of our network,” underlines the ministry. He confirms that the SNCF Group has agreed to take responsibility for a third of the effort, or 500 million euros annually.

For the rest, the vagueness remains. If the Transport framework law (which has still not been examined by the National Assembly) records the allocation of part of the motorway concessions to rail from 2032, the "gap" between 2028 and 2032 remains gaping. A target of +25% traffic in 2033 "The increase of 1.5 billion euros/year will only occur in 2028 and a third will come from... the SNCF itself, in other words paid by travelers and the Regions, from whom we do not ask their opinion!

No indication of other sources of financing has been put forward, which is particularly worrying", underlines Fnaut, the National Federation of Transport User Associations. A concern shared by Frédéric Potier, general delegate of Regions of France, on November 3, during a round table organized by the Senate on this contract. Only "500 million are secure.

We understood that the government wanted to increase the tax on the operation of long-distance transport infrastructure […]. This increase must still be made by 2027." Everything suggests that it is the SNCF itself which will have to make ends meet by increasingly adding to the competition fund dedicated to the network through the drain of its profits.

Set up in 2014 by the State shareholder, this system then sucked up 40% of the profits of the SNCF group, then 60% in 2018 to reach almost 100% in recent years taking into account needs. Since 2016, this cumulative contribution has reached more than 18 billion euros... In 2025, the company generated free cash flow of 1.7 billion euros and 1.6 billion were paid into this fund.

And it's not going to stop any time soon. The other major source of income for SNCF Réseau is the tolls paid by operators (including SNCF Voyageurs) to use the tracks. These tolls are among the highest in Europe, particularly on busy routes such as Paris-Lyon, Paris-Bordeaux and Paris-Marseille.

In certain cases, the performance contract provides for increases in these tolls to compensate for their reduction on certain land development routes/stops. Their amounts are considered by new players as a real obstacle to entering the French market. Ever-higher tolls However, the performance contract is indeed counting on a 25% increase in traffic at the end of the contract, thanks to the intensification of competition, "i.e. nearly 800.

000 additional TGV, TER and freight trains in 2033 compared to 2024". For the State, this increase in traffic will contribute massively to financing. If the contract highlights attractiveness measures such as better visibility for new entrants or even facilities for building specific installations such as maintenance centers, the increase in tolls is firmly contested by SNCF's competitors who are instead pleading for reductions.

For Fnaut, the objective of +25% is optimistic, and the increase in tolls will "dissuade new operators and prevent the Regions from developing the TER, especially with budgets crushed by the State". Frédéric Potier, general delegate of Regions of France, is alarmed by a “really extremely important” level. “Over the period 2024-2029, we reach 2.6 billion euros” for the regions.

The same amount as “the investments of all regions in high schools in the full year”. Remember that TER tolls are paid by the regions which are transport organizing authorities. Finally, questions arise about the direction of investments.

Fnaut regrets that the performance contract prioritizes spending on "mass transit" lines, that is to say the Ile-de-France network, and "high performance" lines. The other types of lines (Standard 1 and 2) "will just be maintained "2 points below" the balance allowing the network to be stabilized, and they will require "additional funding after 2030", which can only cause concern about their sustainability", worries the Federation. And to continue: "in addition the credit needs linked to new projects are excluded, as well as the financing of the Fine Service Lines of the Territory (7.

639 km) as well as work related to the development of Metropolitan Regional Express Services! “It is in fact clear that the very small lines will not benefit from the financial windfall, to the great dismay of the regions. “The regions no longer have the means to cover this expense,” emphasizes Frédéric Potier.

But neither does SNCF Réseau...

Machine-translated from French