GDP, inflation, employment: the 3 figures from Friday morning which will judge the economy of Lescure

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The bond market is also shaking. The 10-year OAT reached 5% on October 21, a first since 2002. Furthermore, the solemn vote on the revenues of the 2027 budget is set for Tuesday, November 3. However, this section contains the 31.4% taxation of conversions of cryptocurrencies into stablecoins. Zero GDP or inflation above 3% would therefore weigh on the debate of the 54 billion euros effort, on the return on your savings and on the appetite for bitcoin.

Let's start with the most anticipated number. INSEE and the Banque de France both expect +0.1% between July and September. The first quarter fell by 0.2% and the second stagnated. However, INSEE first announced +0.2% for this second quarter on July 30. He then reduced it to zero on August 28.

Private economists are no happier. In an AFP dispatch from October 28, Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie, from Rexecode, also aims for +0.1%. He sees “no growth relay today in the French economy, no engine”. For her part, Charlotte de Montpellier, at ING, speaks of an “accumulation of signals” announcing a new stagnation. Finally, household consumption, published at the same time as GDP, gained 0.4% in July thanks to the heatwave. It then lost 0.5% in August.

A zero or a negative figure would thus cause the government forecast to falter by 0.5% for 2026. Roland Lescure had already reduced it by 0.7% to this level on September 11. INSEE expects only 0.4% for the year.

At 8:45 a.m., two numbers fall at the same time. First, inflation: that of September was confirmed at 3.1% over one year on October 15, the highest since the start of 2024. Energy alone showed +21.3%. Rexecode judges the prices “not far from the peak, or even at the peak”. INSEE, for its part, targeted 2.9% in December in its September economic report. Thus, an October figure of 3% or less would support the idea of ​​a plateau. On the other hand, a new peak above 3.1% would increase pressure on the ECB.

Machine-translated from French