Towards an increase of 18% between 2025 and 2027: the World Bank expects a surge in food prices due to wars and El Niño

The price of food is expected to increase by 18% between 2025 and 2027, according to the World Bank (WB), which explains this increase both by supply difficulties due to conflicts and by the expected effects of an exceptional El Niño this winter. According to its forecasts on commodity markets, published on Wednesday, the institution also expects to see energy prices rise by 32% this year, before partially declining in 2027. This increase is largely due to the conflict in the Middle East, causing the barrel of Brent, one of the benchmarks of the black gold market, to rise from $69 on average in 2025 to $91 on average this year.

The Bank, however, anticipates that this barrel will drop to an average price of 79 dollars next year, provided that the conflict launched in February by Israel and the United States against Iran does not resume after the American mid-term elections, scheduled for November 3, as the commodity markets currently fear. Such a hypothesis could then bring the barrel of Brent to an average price of 105 dollars in 2027 and increase food prices by an additional 12% compared to the median scenario. “The commodity market has been hit by several major shocks at the same time,” said Ayhan Kose, the Bank's deputy chief economist, quoted in a press release, noting among the possible consequences risks on “food security”.

“Priority must be given to protecting the poorest populations and supporting low-income countries, which already have to deal with heavy debt,” he insisted. Fall in demand for hydrocarbons As a result of rising energy prices, global oil demand is expected to fall by 2.5% this year, which partly offsets the 5.2% fall in oil deliveries, the largest drop in the last 40 years, with the exception of 2020. The drop in demand ranks 3rd largest, after that of 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and that of of 1980, following in particular the hostage crisis in Iran at the end of 1979, which caused a sharp rise in oil prices.

In addition to these essential goods, the Bank anticipates an increase in a majority of other raw materials: the price of fertilizers should have increased by 14% this year, before returning in 2027 to the levels observed in 2025. The prices of metals will also have experienced a sharp increase, of 25% in 2026, to reach record levels in a certain number of cases, such as aluminum, copper or tin, mainly due to demand. caused by renewable energies, data centers for artificial intelligence or even electric vehicles.

Machine-translated from French