Because energy prices spiked more than 20%, euro‑area inflation tops 4% in October and hits a three‑year high

Inflation in the euro zone rose in October to a new three-year high, due to soaring energy prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East, according to official data released on Wednesday. The rise in prices in the 21 countries sharing the single European currency accelerated to 4%, compared to 3.8% in September, according to a first estimate from Eurostat. This is unheard of since September 2023, in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, which led to an unprecedented jump in prices in the euro zone.

In detail, Lithuania records the highest inflation (6.1%), ahead of Bulgaria (6%) and Greece (5.6%). France is close to the average with an increase in consumer prices estimated at 3.8%. Finally, those who are doing the best are Malta (2.3%), Germany (2.8%) and Slovakia (2.9%).

Jump in energy prices of almost 21% in October This acceleration of inflation in the euro zone in October, linked to the surge in oil prices, is in line with the expectations of Bloomberg analysts. According to Eurostat, the rise in energy prices reached 20.8% in October, compared to 18.9% the previous month. The prices of services (3.3%, compared to 3.2% in September) and food products (1.6%, compared to 1.3% in September) increased slightly.

At this stage, "the indirect effects of rising energy costs on food prices" remain "very limited", notes Jack Allen-Reynolds, economist at Capital Economics. “If energy prices remain close to their current levels, energy inflation should slow slightly in November. However, we believe that the impact of rising energy costs will be reflected more visibly on food prices” in the coming months, he said.

Machine-translated from French