War in Iran: Washington extends blockade to land routes, oil in ambush

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Central Command (CENTCOM) formalized the creation of Task Force Iron Gate on Saturday, November 7. This cell brings together around twenty soldiers and civilians in Florida. Its mission consists first of all in identifying advanced weapons, dual-use technologies, sanctioned equipment and financial flows. It must then block them at the Iranian land borders and on the Caspian Sea. The Treasury, the State Department, Justice and Intelligence are involved.

Why now? A Reuters investigation published the same day puts the explosives and heavy trucks imported by Tehran at least $2 billion since January 2025. Iran relies on a network of parallel military agencies to do this. Cargoes arrive from Russia via the Caspian and from Central Asia by road. China ships by cargo plane. According to CENTCOM, Iran's naval blockade deprived Tehran of more than $25 billion in crude oil sales and diverted 144 ships as of the end of October. But the back door remained wide open.

Admiral Brad Cooper, head of CENTCOM, wants to prevent Iran from “financing terrorism” and rebuilding its weapons factories. On Saturday afternoon, an American plane fired precision munitions at the stern of the cargo ship M/V Huda. This ship was attempting to force the blockade in the Gulf of Oman.

The Wall Street Journal on Saturday described a torn president. Vice President JD Vance and Gulf allies advise him to end the war. On the other hand, other advisers are calling for new strikes on Iran. Vance drew first. As early as Wednesday, November 4, he wrote on X that “the reason we lost was the war.” Then he challenged those who would say losing the Senate for six years was worth it.

Trump on Thursday promised a decision “soon” and confirmed “minor strikes” on an anti-aircraft device. However, according to American intelligence cited by Reuters, new bombings would change neither the Iranian negotiating position nor the solidity of the regime. And the Congress which changes in January does not intend to watch the trains go by. Chuck Schumer warned on Wednesday that “this war must end” by brandishing the budgetary power of Congress. For his part, Representative Ro Khanna is preparing a resolution cutting funding for all combat operations in Iran, “as we did for Vietnam.”

On the oil market, the reaction was immediate, but in a downward direction. Brent closed Friday, November 6 at $98.32, compared to $113.43 a week earlier. According to Reuters, this decline of more than 13% marks its worst week since March 2020. The market is in fact betting on an agreement imposed by a Democratic Congress. Yet Iron Gate doesn't reopen anything. Flows in Hormuz are still below 60% of the strait's capacity. In addition, the nuclear proposal transmitted by Tehran via Qatar comes up against the American demand for a complete abandonment of nuclear capabilities.

Machine-translated from French