Bitcoin at $81,000 on Fed day: Galaxy ends the bear market, whales bet against

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Two camps clash in the meantime. Galaxy Research says the bear market has been over since June. Hyperliquid's biggest traders have just gone net sellers on BTC for the first time since March.

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The rebound started during the Asian night. According to CoinGecko, bitcoin was trading at $80,900 around 6 a.m., compared to $79,700 at the same time on Tuesday. Ether follows at $2,350.

The schedule dictates everything. The Fed's decision falls at 7:00 p.m. Paris time. Futures contracts give between a 90% and 93% chance of a status quo between 3.75% and 4.00%. It would be a break, a month and a half after the September increase, the first since 2023.

No one will actually read the press release. Everything will be decided at 7:30 p.m., when Kevin Warsh will speak. The Fed president must say whether he is preparing a new increase in December. However, inflation remains high, the price of oil has started to rise again and the mid-term elections take place in six days. A single word on this point and bitcoin will move more than on the decision itself.

ETF flows hesitate as much as the price. On Monday, American spot funds collected a net $110 million. BlackRock's IBIT carried everything, after two exit sessions. Over the whole of October, bitcoin and ether ETFs returned more than $1 billion. Tuesday's figures will be published in the morning.

Alex Thorn doesn't beat around the bush. On Tuesday, October 27, the head of Galaxy research published an unambiguous note. According to him, “the bear market ended in June”, when BTC had plunged below $58,000. His argument is contained in two lines. First, the price returned above its 50-week moving average. Then, the selling pressure eased. It sets the next test at a daily close above $82,500. Conversely, a return below $76,540 would invalidate the scenario.

Galaxy is not alone in signaling the end of the decline. Bernstein confirmed in early October that the low point was behind us. However, he reduced his end-of-year goal to $125,000. Standard Chartered made the same move, with its target reduced to $100,000. You will have noticed that the banks buy the idea of ​​the trough, not that of the new peak.

The feeling remains lukewarm. The Fear & Greed index hovered around 50 this Wednesday morning, in the neutral zone. We are far from the extreme fear of June and the euphoria of the summits.

While analysts talk about dips, big portfolios do the opposite. Glassnode noted on Tuesday that Hyperliquid whales have returned to net shorts on bitcoin. This decentralized perpetual platform has become the barometer of leverage. Unheard of since March, when these same addresses bought the dip before the spring rebound.

Machine-translated from French