Despite sluggish activity, the government maintains its forecasts of 0.5% growth and 5.4% deficit for 2026

The government has maintained its forecast of a public deficit at 5.4% of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2026 and growth of 0.5%, despite the uncertainties weighing on the economy, according to the end-of-management finance bill for 2026 presented on Wednesday. This budgetary text was first presented to the Council of Ministers, before being discussed in Parliament in the afternoon. Its publication comes a few days after those of French growth figures in the third quarter by INSEE, which reported a further decline in wealth creation of 0.1%.

GDP had already fallen by 0.2% in the first quarter before stagnating in the second. These forecasts are "below expectations", and "surprised all forecasters", declared the Minister of the Economy, Roland Lescure, after the council of ministers. But there is "no reason" to adjust this target (deficit), it is "a solid estimate that we maintain", he maintained.

“The bad macroeconomic news only affects the public finance forecast for 2026 very little, which is at this stage of the year very largely constructed using accounting feedback,” explained the Minister of the Economy, Roland Lescure, at the end of the council of ministers. A "a little optimistic" forecast for the governor of the Banque de France The day before, the governor of the Bank of France, Emmanuel Moulin, had nevertheless said that the institution's growth forecast, at 0.4% in 2026, was "a little optimistic" and would be revised in mid-December, indicated the Bank of France, confirming Bloomberg. The text also contains several measures to respond in particular to the consequences of episodes of drought and forest fires in the summer in order to "strengthen the means of civil security", or to open up funding dedicated to the generalization of the 1 euro meal in university restaurants according to the text.

It provides for the recruitment of 276 positions, mainly for the benefit of the university and school network (+185 full-time equivalents). The text plans to open new credits for 3.7 billion euros, offset by cancellations of 3.8 billion euros. Funding for the emergency accommodation park is increased by 700 million euros, as is the Defense mission by the same amount in the face of the consequences of the war in the Middle East.

The France 2030 program, on the other hand, is cut by 600 million euros, as is the “Work, employment and administration of social ministries” mission.

Machine-translated from French