Bitcoin at $75,000: Weekend starts with 11-week low

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The dropout has a specific origin. In the wake of the Democratic victory in the midterms on November 3, artificial intelligence stocks plunged on Wall Street and led the Nasdaq 100 into its worst session since March 2020. Bitcoin, which had risen above $81,000 the day after the election, followed the slope of semiconductors without the slightest resistance. On Thursday, the price broke 76,000 dollars, then on Friday 75,000, an eleven-week low, while the Kospi and the Taiex collapsed in Asia.

The liquidation figures give the measure of the purge. CoinGlass recorded $1.05 billion in positions forcefully closed over 24 hours on Friday, mostly long positions. The Fear & Greed index fell to 28 Thursday evening, in the fear zone, then to 25 this Saturday, in the extreme fear zone. The market returned below its pre-election levels, erasing the entire October rebound in three sessions.

US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded $430.2 million in net outflows on Thursday, November 5, driven by a reversal in Fidelity's fund, then $411.9 million on Friday, including $403 million for BlackRock's IBIT alone. The latter now has more than $1.4 billion in withdrawals from its current series. Cumulatively, these outflows tilt the annual balance sheet: according to data from SoSoValue, cumulative net inflows since the launch of these funds have gone from 56.6 billion dollars at the end of 2025 to 56.1 billion on November 5, even before Friday's outflows. The 2026 balance is negative, of the order of $900 million, after ten months.

Remember the story of 2024 and 2025? ETFs were to provide the structural demand that would smooth the cycles. For now, they behave like any listed product held by individuals and hedge funds: they buy when it goes up, they sell when it goes down. Long-term institutional demand exists, Strive bought 8,136 BTC in the third quarter, then 15,124 in October, but it is not enough to absorb the outflows from ETFs when the Nasdaq trembles.

The employment report published on Friday did not help matters. The American economy created 165,000 jobs in October, compared to 65,000 expected, and the fell to 4.1%. Good news for employees, bad for risky assets. Such a strong labor market gives the plenty of room to slow down its rate cuts, while investors were still counting on rapid easing by spring.

Machine-translated from French