Bitcoin Bear Market Is Over, Says This Analyst – Right Time to Buy?

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https://cryptoast.fr/marche-baissier-bitcoin-termine-selon-analyse-bon-moment-pour-achat/

After dipping below $60,000 last June, Bitcoin is currently up 38% since that low point, while still remaining just over 36% below its last all-time high above $120,000 in October last year.

An intermediate position which currently maintains the price of BTC at the level of around $80,000. Enough to allow Galaxy Digital's chief analyst, Alex Thorn, to affirm once and for all that "the bear market ended in June and that Bitcoin is in the accumulation phase which preceded each of its previous bull markets".

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In order to support his analysis, Alex Thorn addresses the 50-week moving average of Bitcoin above which BTC has now returned for 5 consecutive weeks, after spending no less than 44 weeks below it. A recovery which confirms his scenario: since he explains that during the four previous cycles where the price of BTC had spent more than 20 weeks below this average, a return to an upward trend of at least 55% occurred a year later, without ever closing more than 8.4% below the recovery level.

Notably, the last Bitcoin bear market recorded the smallest drawdown in its history, with a decline of 53% in total which allowed it for the very first time in its history to never see the price of BTC go below the level of its realized value, which corresponds to the average price at which each BTC last moved.

A situation also confirmed by a notable slowdown in selling pressure on the BTC market. Indeed, Alex Thorn explains that “the sellers have mostly left: core traders and “macro tourists” who were buyers until October 2025 have more than halved their exposure to ETFs and futures, while everyone else has largely held on to their positions.”

In addition, the chief analyst of Galaxy Digital adds as other bullish ingredients the sharp increase in US debt, now above $40,000 billion, a historic rise in the 10-year yield on the US debt market (which recently reached 5.31%) and inflation at 3.7%. Enough to strengthen the capacity of Bitcoin to represent a possible hedge against the risk of monetary depreciation.

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So many elements which allow Alex Thorn to affirm that Bitcoin “has proven its capacity to reach at least 125,000 dollars, and [that he sees] no reason why it cannot resume this level”. As a result, Galaxy Digital's analysis ends with a conclusion that is ultimately quite simple: “the time seems right to buy and hold Bitcoin”.

Machine-translated from French