The contrast is striking between the two countries: the United Kingdom's growth jumped by 0.7% while that of France was close to recession at -0.1%.

The United Kingdom's gross domestic product (GDP) continued to grow in the third quarter, with an increase of 0.7%, driven in particular by services benefiting from artificial intelligence which made it possible to resist the negative effects of the war in the Middle East. “The computer services, programming, consulting and related activities industry contributed the most to quarterly growth in each of the last seven months,” said the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in its report released on Thursday. “Growth has been exceptionally concentrated in sectors linked to AI,” underlines Ruth Gregory, economist at Capital Economics.

Decline in catering services This growth, in line with analysts' expectations, once again demonstrates a certain resilience of the British economy to the harmful consequences of the war in the Middle East which caused energy prices to jump, after an increase - revised upwards - of 0.5% of GDP in the second quarter. “The conflict in the Middle East has weighed on growth around the world, but the United Kingdom is showing remarkable resilience,” responded Finance Minister John Healey. The comparison with France is particularly striking.

While the British economy grew by 0.7% in the third quarter, French activity remains penalized by weak household consumption, industrial difficulties and political and budgetary uncertainties. However, the two countries are experiencing the same energy shock linked to the war in the Middle East. But unlike the United Kingdom, France does not benefit from a growth engine as powerful as IT services and activities linked to artificial intelligence.

According to figures published on October 30 by INSEE, French GDP fell by 0.1% in the third quarter, after stagnating in the second and decreasing by 0.2% in the first. The gap with the United Kingdom therefore reached 0.8 points of growth in the third quarter alone. This French underperformance is explained in particular by the fall in exports (-1.7%) and the continued decline in investments (-0.6%).

According to the OFCE, all digital investments only contributed 0.19 points to French growth in 2025, and the contribution from the construction of data centers and other infrastructure remained close to zero. However, France already has around 350 data centers, representing 850 MW of installed capacity at the end of 2025. But the billions of euros of investments announced in new infrastructure have not yet produced a significant effect on economic activity.

In the United Kingdom, on the other hand, “services production increased by 0.9% in the three months to September 2026,” the report highlights. And overall "consumer spending has remained remarkably resilient", suggesting that "households continue to cushion the shock of rising energy prices by borrowing more and reducing their savings", explains Ruth Gregory. Accommodation and catering activities nevertheless declined, “driven by catering and drinking services, which fell by 1.9%”.

“With persistently high inflation and the Bank of England raising interest rates in the hope of controlling it, the outlook for the coming months is not very encouraging,” according to Kit Rees of wealth management firm Quilter. The analyst warns of fears that the British economy will "lose its momentum" in the coming months if the war in the Middle East continues to keep energy prices high.

Machine-translated from French