Experts and Executives Express Confidence in Chinese Economy at Summer Davos 2025#

Key Insights from Summer Davos#

• Economic Resilience: Participants highlighted China’s ability to maintain stability amid global uncertainties, driven by its high-tech sectors, recovering consumer demand, and effective policy interventions.
• High-Tech and Innovation: Lu Zhi, dean of the Adecco Academy, emphasized China’s shift from a low-cost manufacturing base to a hub of innovation. He noted that foreign multinationals now look to China for business models and innovation, citing its solid manufacturing base, strong innovation momentum, and abundant talent pool.
• Consumer Demand Recovery: Joe Ngai, chairman of McKinsey China, described China as entering a phase of “moderate but stable growth,” driven by quality-conscious consumers. He pointed to booming domestic travel, sports, and sectors like AI, robotics, and tourism as evidence of positive momentum.
• Policy Support: Zhu Min, former deputy managing director of the IMF, credited stronger fiscal allocations to livelihood programs and trade-in incentives for boosting domestic consumption, reinforcing China’s economic stability.
• Market Performance: Chinese stocks surged on June 24, 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 1.15% to 3,420.57, the Shenzhen Component Index up 1.68%, and the ChiNext Index up 2.3%, reflecting investor confidence.
• Bullish Outlook: Goldman Sachs’ China equity portfolio strategist Fu Si reaffirmed an overweight stance on A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, with upgraded outlooks for banking, real estate, and consumer-driven sectors like medical devices, consumer services, media, and e-commerce. Economist Wang Lisheng projected stronger policy easing in the second half of 2025, with Q2 GDP growth likely above 5%.

Broader Economic Context#

• Challenges: China faces external headwinds, including U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions, though a temporary U.S.-China trade truce has eased some concerns. The property sector and consumer confidence remain areas of concern, with consumption contributing only ~2.4 percentage points to GDP growth in 2024, significantly below pre-COVID levels.
• Policy Measures: China’s trade-in program boosted retail sales of cars, appliances, and electronics in the first five months of 2025, with consumer goods sales generating 1.1 trillion yuan (US$153 billion). The government plans further fiscal support, with a reported 4% deficit target and 3 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds for 2025.
• Global Sentiment: Posts on X from sources like @XisMoments and @sinoprise echoed the Summer Davos optimism, highlighting China’s robust industrial base and innovation-driven growth as key strengths.

Conclusion#

The 2025 Summer Davos in Tianjin showcased strong confidence in China’s economic outlook, driven by its high-tech advancements, recovering consumer demand, and robust policy support. Despite challenges like trade tensions and a weak property sector, experts and executives see China as a stable and innovative economic hub. With GDP growth projected above 5% for Q2 2025 and bullish market sentiment, China’s strategic focus on consumption and innovation positions it to navigate global uncertainties effectively.