Jio Financial Services Gains for Fifth Straight Session: Can the Rally Continue in June 2025?#

Recent Performance and Catalysts#

• Stock Price Movement: Jio Financial opened at ₹326.90 on June 30, 2025, reaching an intraday high of ₹331.90, reflecting a 2.6% gain. The stock has risen 14% in June, following gains of 10% in May, 14.5% in April, and 9.5% in March, totaling a 44.89% increase over three months. However, it remains 7.4% below its 52-week high of ₹363.00 (June 20, 2024) and 67% above its 52-week low of ₹198.60 (March 3, 2025).
• Regulatory Approvals: The rally follows key developments, including SEBI’s approval on June 25, 2025, for Jio BlackRock Broking Pvt Ltd to operate as a stockbroker, and prior approvals for Jio BlackRock Asset Management and Investment Advisers. These moves, part of a 50:50 joint venture with BlackRock Inc., position Jio Financial to offer comprehensive investment solutions, boosting investor confidence.
• Payments Bank Expansion: Jio Financial invested ₹190 crore in Jio Payments Bank, acquiring 19 crore equity shares, and purchased the State Bank of India’s 17.8% stake for ₹104.54 crore, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary. These moves, announced on June 18 and 25, 2025, strengthen its digital banking presence.
• Financial Performance: For Q4 FY25 (March 2025), Jio Financial reported a 2% year-on-year (YoY) net profit increase to ₹316.11 crore from ₹310.6 crore, with revenue up 24% to ₹518.36 crore. Full-year FY25 profit was ₹1,612.59 crore, slightly up from ₹1,604.55 crore, with assets under management (AUM) soaring to ₹10,053 crore from ₹173 crore. Q3 FY25 (December 2024) saw a flat 0.3% YoY profit at ₹294.78 crore, with revenue up 6.1% to ₹438 crore, though profits fell 57% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) from ₹689 crore.

Technical Outlook#

• Bullish Momentum: Anshul Jain of Lakshmishree Investments noted that Jio Financial broke its weekly swing high of ₹310 and is approaching a key resistance at ₹347. He suggests momentum traders book profits near this level, as a sustained move above ₹347 may require a new base. Drumil Vithlani of Bonanza highlighted a breakout above a falling trendline at ₹310–₹312, with the Relative Strength Index (RSI) above 70, indicating strong bullish momentum. He predicts a potential move to ₹350 if the stock holds above ₹300, with support at ₹310–₹312 and a stop-loss below ₹300.
• X Sentiment: Posts on X reflect bullish sentiment, with users like @KapilBh11016088 noting a breakout above a downward resistance line on June 26, and @bsindia citing a 67% surge over four months due to technical strength. @Stockstudy8 emphasized a break above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA) and a one-year downtrend, with ₹280 as a base.

Valuation and Analyst Views#

• Valuation Metrics: Jio Financial’s trailing twelve-month (TTM) P/E ratio is 89.36, significantly above the NBFC sector average of 17.65, indicating a premium valuation. Its P/B ratio is 1.61, and the Durability Score of 60 suggests stable financials, but a Valuation Score of 25 reflects overvaluation concerns.
• Analyst Ratings: Analysts are cautious, with 100% recommending a “HOLD” and an average target price of ₹272, implying a 15.91% downside from ₹323.45. However, some forecasts are more optimistic, with sharemyprediction.com projecting ₹450–₹500 by end-2025, driven by market share growth and BlackRock partnerships.
• Shareholding: Promoter holding remains steady at 47.12% as of March 2025, with mutual fund ownership at 6.58% (up from Q4 2024) and FII holding down to 11.66%. Retail investor buying has increased, partly offsetting FII selling since listing (FII stake fell from 21% to 11%).

Risks and Opportunities#

• Opportunities:
  • Business Expansion: SEBI approvals for brokerage and asset management, alongside full ownership of Jio Payments Bank, enhance Jio Financial’s ability to offer integrated financial services, including lending, leasing, insurance, and digital payments. The BlackRock partnership and Aladdin platform launch strengthen its wealth management offerings.
  • Market Position: Backed by Reliance Industries, Jio Financial leverages a vast ecosystem, with 7.4 million monthly active users (MAU) across its digital platforms and a focus on financial inclusion in rural and urban India. AUM growth to ₹10,053 crore signals strong scaling potential.
  • Technical Strength: The stock’s breakout above ₹310–₹312 and RSI above 70 suggest room for further gains, potentially to ₹350 or higher if resistance at ₹347 is breached.
• Risks:
  • High Valuation: A P/E ratio of 89.36 (vs. sector 17.65) and analyst target of ₹272 indicate overvaluation, with potential for a pullback if momentum fades.
  • Market and Regulatory Risks: Volatility from U.S. tariff uncertainties (e.g., 10% flat-rate discussions) and India’s regulatory changes could impact growth. The stock’s 57% QoQ profit drop in Q3 FY25 highlights earnings inconsistency.
  • Resistance Levels: Failure to sustain above ₹347 could lead to consolidation or a retreat to ₹310–₹312 support, as noted by analysts.

Conclusion#

Jio Financial Services’ 13% rally over five sessions to ₹331.90 on June 30, 2025, reflects strong investor optimism driven by SEBI approvals for its BlackRock joint ventures and a ₹294.54 crore investment in Jio Payments Bank. Technical indicators suggest potential for further gains to ₹350 if the stock holds above ₹300 and breaches ₹347 resistance. However, its high P/E ratio of 89.36 and analyst “HOLD” ratings with a ₹272 target signal caution due to overvaluation. Long-term investors may find opportunities in Jio Financial’s expanding digital finance ecosystem, backed by Reliance Industries, but short-term traders should monitor resistance at ₹347 and support at ₹310–₹312, with a stop-loss below ₹300. Regulatory and market risks, including U.S. trade policies, warrant close attention. Investors are advised to consult certified financial advisors before making decisions.