Brazil: Bitcoin surges 9% in reais, Ibovespa plummets after Lula’s re‑election

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As of 11:36 a.m. Brasília time, bitcoin was trading at 440,772 reais, up 9.6% over 24 hours, according to Exame. At the same time, it was trading at $79,774, down 0.6%.

The difference comes almost entirely from foreign exchange. The commercial dollar reached 5.602 reais at 10:15 a.m., or 12.21% more than the day before according to Suno. It closed again at 4.993 reais on Friday October 23.

For a Brazilian saver, holding bitcoin therefore amounted to holding an asset denominated in dollars, without an exchange window. On the local Mercado Bitcoin platform, BTC exceeded 435,000 reais around 11:47 a.m., according to a quote relayed by Economic News Brasil.

The leak had started before opening. As of Sunday evening, USDT climbed to 5.42 reais on crypto platforms, while the official foreign exchange market was closed. Bridge's Brazilian partner (Stripe) has even suspended reais deposits and withdrawals at least until Monday, reports Livecoins.

In dollars, the market remains under pressure before the Fed's decision on Wednesday. Pedro Fontes, analyst at Mercado Bitcoin, is monitoring support at $80,000 then the 100-week moving average, around $75,600.

The second round was played on Sunday October 25. Lula won with 51.79% of the votes against Flávio Bolsonaro, while the big banks had bet on alternation. On Friday, the Ibovespa still finished at 205,082 points.

On Monday, the drop reached 10% around 10 a.m. in Brasília (2 p.m. in Paris). The B3 then suspended the cash market, ETFs and stock options for 30 minutes, according to Reuters. This mechanism has not been used since March 2020. No presidential election has ever triggered it.

“Investors are liquidating their long positions after the surprising shift of Lula, re-elected for a fourth term. »

Upon recovery, the index fell to 169,516 points, a decline of 17.34%. Around 11:48 a.m., it limited the damage to 16.15%, at 171,931 points, according to DGABC. Luis Ferreira of EFG noted a fall of around 31% for Banco do Brasil and 12% for Petrobras.

Stablecoins were already the usual exit route. Between August 2019 and December 2025, they represented 71.7% of crypto operations declared to the Receita Federal, and USDT 88.7% of this volume, according to BitNotícias.

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Machine-translated from French