Climate disruption weighs heavily on inflation, particularly in the euro zone, warns Oxfam

The NGO estimates in its report published Wednesday November 12 that, "in the euro zone, the climate crisis could represent a third of the food inflation forecast in 2027." With the repeated heatwaves and drought this summer, agriculture has suffered greatly and certain products are in short supply. Vine tomatoes are three times more expensive than last summer's average.

At the start of the school year, the price of leeks and lettuce was up 50% compared to the 2021-2025 period. In a context where "the poorest 10% spend 77% of their income on food", "each increase in the price of food can result in difficult trade-offs", underlines the NGO. Also read Drought: will there be trees at Christmas?

“That is directly linked to climate change,” says Elise Naccarato, campaign manager at Oxfam France. A heat wave, a forest fire like we experienced this summer, but also for example a flood, will mechanically reduce our agricultural yields and therefore increase food prices. “The urgency of an agriculture that is “more resilient to extreme weather events” The cost of market gardening production in France, for example, rose by 14% last August due to drought and higher water costs.

The phenomenon will only increase with global warming, hence the need to adapt, insists Elise Naccarato: "For example, [we must] produce foods that need less irrigation. We know that in the years to come, we will have more and more droughts, heat waves. So we need, for example, more agroecology, an agriculture that is more resilient to extreme climatic events.

"According to the NGO's projections, the climate crisis alone could cause a third of food inflation in the euro zone next year. At the national level, Oxfam France calls for "reorienting public policies and public money to secure farmers' incomes", "supporting small farms and agroecological models" and "reducing dependence on synthetic fertilizers and pesticides".

Machine-translated from French