Bitcoin: Arthur Hayes sees the dilution of AI giants plummeting the market

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The BitMEX co-founder therefore maintains a cautious stance for Maelstrom. In the longer term, however, he anticipates a response from central banks likely to support cryptocurrencies.

He opens his reasoning with Zcash: capitalization can progress without the first buyers making money if the available supply increases quickly. He applies this reading to the stocks of big AI companies and SpaceX.

After an IPO, managers, employees and historical investors may remain subject to a blocking period, often 180 days, but variable depending on the agreements. Its expiration authorizes the sale of previously unavailable securities.

For Anthropic, Arthur Hayes puts forward an estimate of “83% dilution” by June 2027, based on his reading of the introductory document. This figure remains its calculation, not an official company forecast.

The distinction is essential: making already issued shares tradable does not necessarily create new shares. The risk described concerns in particular the increase in the supply likely to be sold. An additional issue of securities constitutes a dilution of capital.

The boss of Maelstrom believes that this pressure could weaken prices despite revenue growth. However, an unblocking does not guarantee either an immediate sale of all securities nor a mechanical drop in their price.

The link with Bitcoin passes, in his thesis, through the financing of AI. A sustained decline in stocks could make lenders more wary and make borrowing needed for data centers and other infrastructure more expensive.

He then envisages a slowdown in loans and financing granted by banks. Less expansion of their balance sheets would reduce liquidity support for risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

He notes a weekly decline in the American bank balance sheet, while recognizing that a single observation is not enough to establish a trend. Aggregated statistics from commercial banks appear in particular in the Fed's H.8 publication, separate from the central bank's own balance sheet.

Machine-translated from French