Bitcoin: historically low volatility, a major movement to come?

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https://cryptoast.fr/bitcoin-volatilite-historically-faible-fed-glassnode/

Bitcoin is going through a period of calm rarely observed in its history. According to Glassnode's latest weekly analysis, its one-month realized volatility has fallen to around 25%, a level comparable to that of summer 2023.

This indicator measures the magnitude of daily price variations, annualized. Since 2015, Bitcoin has only been less volatile about 5% of the time.

$85K keeps turning $BTC back. Since January, Bitcoin has closed above it on only five days, never more than three in a row. It's a truly tough level to break. More in depth analysis in our latest Week on Chain report https://t.co/xy8lE3ilt3

Glassnode recalls that in August 2023, this indicator had reached 18%, compared to 22% last August. In both cases, these lows preceded a sudden movement by a few days: downward in 2023, upward this year. This lull could therefore end soon, without it being possible to predict the direction of the next movement.

This Wednesday at midday, the price of Bitcoin stood at $80,569, down 3.33% over seven days.

For Glassnode, the decision of the American Federal Reserve (Fed), expected this Wednesday at the end of the day, could be the next catalyst for Bitcoin.

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The American central bank raised its rates by 0.25 points on September 16, a first since 2023. A further increase could weigh on risky assets, including cryptocurrencies.

Especially since several American economic indicators are showing signs of weakness. The leading index, supposed to anticipate economic activity, stopped increasing in September. Consumer confidence fell to 48.1 points, close to its lowest since 2009.

On the upside, the $84,000-$85,000 area provides major resistance. Since January, Bitcoin has only closed above five times, never staying there for more than three consecutive days.

BTC is also moving below $81,500, corresponding to the estimated average cost price of American spot Bitcoin ETFs. Demand remains low: according to Glassnode, these funds saw $540 million in outflows on October 22 and only $67 million in net inflows over two weeks.

On a decline, a potential first support is between $78,000 and $79,000, where approximately $42 million worth of buy orders were present on Binance. Next comes $77,900, the average cost price of active investors, then $75,800, that of recent buyers.

Machine-translated from French