Bitcoin drops $80,000: the 3 threats weighing on BTC this week

Coin Encyclopedia Improve your knowledge of cryptos

Traders are scaling back before the Fed, and the $80,000 line is hanging by a thread. Three threats pile up between now and Friday, and the first falls Wednesday evening in Washington.

All current Gate EU bonuses in one place, cumulative with the Rewards Hub (10,000+ USDC) Take advantage of Gate EU bonuses Commercial link

A month ago, the bets were made. The CME's FedWatch tool (which deduces rate expectations from futures contracts) on September 25 gave a 64.2% chance of an increase in October. This probability fell on Sunday to 9.4%, compared to 90.6% for maintaining the range at 3.75-4.00%.

However, the Fed unanimously raised its rates by 25 basis points on September 16. And American inflation is not helping, with consumer prices up 3.7% year-on-year in September.

The risk lies more in Kevin Warsh's press conference. Futures markets are already putting a rise to 4.00-4.25% at the top of the scenarios for the December 9 meeting, with a 67.5% probability. A president who confirms this trajectory would cut short hopes of monetary easing before the end of the year, and bitcoin is having a hard time with this kind of cold shower.

The political calendar also weighs. A rise on Wednesday would fall six days before the November 3 midterm elections. The Fed has only raised rates once since 1990 less than a week before a national vote, on November 2, 2022.

Last week was off to a good start. US spot bitcoin ETFs, listed funds backed by real bitcoin, had collected $1.07 billion from Monday to Wednesday. The movement reversed Thursday October 22 with $635.6 million in net outflows, then $137.9 million on Friday according to data compiled by Farside Investors.

BlackRock footed the bill. Its IBIT lost $364.4 million over the two sessions, Fidelity's FBTC lost $249.3 million. Only Morgan Stanley's small MSBT took in new money, $6.5 million in total. Over five sessions, the balance nevertheless remains positive at $301.2 million.

The lever did the rest. Nearly $547 million in positions were liquidated in the twenty-four hours around Saturday's slide according to CoinGlass, and more than 116,000 traders were affected.

Brent rose about 6% last week and near six-month highs after Houthi attacks on Saudi oil facilities. Monday morning in Asia, the barrel fell to 115.16 dollars.

Such expensive oil fuels inflation that central banks are trying to curb. The rate on the 10-year US Treasury bill was already around 5% on Friday, and an asset that pays no interest like bitcoin is struggling with this competition.

Glassnode spots a buying zone between $80,000 and $81,500, reports crypto.news. Below that, $78,000. The 20-day moving average, around $82,400, serves as a ceiling. Bitcoin remains 36.6% below its October 6, 2025 record of $126,080.

Machine-translated from French