Is a job guarantee the solution to mass AI unemployment?

Analysis Is a job guarantee the solution to mass AI unemployment? Nick Romeo An old idea springs anew as a chorus of influential voices predicts that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude

In a preface to his book Capitalism and Freedom, the American economist Milton Friedman famously observed that a crisis can propel once-fringe ideas into the political mainstream.

“Only a crisis – actual or perceived – produces real change. When that crisis occurs, the actions that are taken depend on the ideas that are lying around,” he wrote. The job of intellectuals, thinktanks and economists, he argued, is to refine the quality of these ambient ideas, so that good ones are ready when disaster strikes.

A chorus of influential voices is now predicting that AI may trigger crises of vast magnitude. Bill Gates has declared that AI will advance so rapidly that within a decade, humans will not be needed “for most things”. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei has warned that the technology could cause widespread unemployment within one to five years, eliminating many positions in law, tech, finance and other white-collar professions. Even if these predictions are wrong, investors who bet heavily on the technology may conclude that AI is a bubble, and this in itself could cause a recession and widespread job loss.

Whether a crisis of mass AI-related job loss turns out to be actual or perceived, one policy idea that is attracting growing attention and support could directly mitigate this problem: a job guarantee.

In its most ambitious form, such a program would ensure that anyone who wants work is guaranteed a meaningful, decently paid job. By creating a public option for employment, its supporters argue, a job guarantee could protect millions of people from the financial and psychological damage of joblessness and mobilize a vast labor force to tackle urgent societal problems, from infrastructure and climate adaptation to elder care and childcare.

The concept of a job guarantee has a long history, both as an ideal and an actual policy. Article 23 of the 1948 Universal Declaration of Human Rights states: “Everyone has the right to work, to free choice of employment, to just and favourable conditions of work and to protection against unemployment.” During the Great Depression in the 1930s, Franklin D Roosevelt established the Works Progress Administration (WPA), which employed millions of Americans in ambitious public works projects that constructed roads, bridges, sewers, playing fields and much more. More recently, France , India and Argentina are among the countries that have launched versions of a job guarantee.

Though a job guarantee and universal basic income (UBI) are often grouped together, a recent global survey found greater support for job guarantees than UBIs. Polling of Americans by the Democratic strategist David Shor also shows the same pattern , with greater support for the creation of well-paid jobs than for direct income support. This makes sense, the venture capitalist and civic activist Nick Hanauer said, because “jobs represent so much more than income in human societies. They represent connection and dignity and enfranchisement and participation.”