A devastating wait-and-see attitude. Marc Fiorentino's financial column

But the evil that has been gnawing at us since the dissolution of June 2024, and even more so as the elections approach, is wait-and-see attitude. France is economically at a standstill. We saw it this week with the collapse of consumer confidence and a GDP in the third quarter of -0.1%. But we hear the same story from businesses, especially SMEs and mid-sized companies, which have “put down the pencil” on development and investment projects.

The explosion of small business bankruptcies will not improve the situation. As for international investors, who have the choice of investing anywhere in the world and particularly in the United States or in emerging countries, they prefer to wait. Wait for what? To this question, all these economic players answer: the next elections. Hoping that these will provide more visibility, which is far from being a certainty.

This situation is devastating. She's also annoying. Because even if part of the population and businesses are under pressure, money, in France or outside the country, remains awaiting investment. Our savings rate continues to be near historic highs.

Banks and wealth management advisors are not idle: their asset collections are spectacular but are mainly focused on interest rate investments, in the short term or medium term, thanks to attractive returns and capital guarantees. Financial savings also benefit from a storage effect: households who had saved for a property purchase are not rushing to invest. First-time buyers often find themselves excluded from the market due to rising rates, and property owners who were planning to buy larger prefer to cling to their renegotiated credits at the lowest, around 1%.

“Wealthy” retirees are reluctant to donate

The mattresses of households that have the means to save swell and sleep (normal when we talk about mattresses). The cash flow situation of large companies is also very positive, to the point that 38% of them borrow at rates lower than those applied to the State. And let's not talk about "wealthy" retirees who are reluctant to make donations when they have no certainty about their retirement, or rather only have one: they will be in the sights of the next governments whatever their political orientation.

All this money is missing from growth. The French economy needs money to start circulating again. And that investments resume. All this costs us at least 1 to 2 growth points per year. All these mattresses which are regularly growing and piling up are just waiting to pour into the country's economy. We need “just” a little visibility and stability. We’re not there yet…

Machine-translated from French