A new “Epic Fury”? Oil prices rise as markets fear a short, intense campaign of US strikes on Iran just after the midterms

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, with the market worried about reports in the press of a new campaign of strikes by the United States on Iran after the American mid-term elections. According to the Wall Street Journal, which cites "people informed of these conversations", the United States has asked several Gulf countries to prepare for a short and intense campaign after the American elections (known as "midterms") scheduled for November 3. “We expect Brent to stay comfortably above $110 a barrel, or even higher, until after the midterm elections, when we see what Donald Trump actually has planned for the war in the Middle East,” said Kathleen Brooks, analyst at XTB.

Around 10:20 a.m. GMT (11:20 a.m. in Paris), the price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in December, rose 1.12% to $115.16. Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for delivery the same month, gained 1.81% to $101.71. A new “Epic Fury” “We may do another little Epic Fury,” the American president declared last week, in reference to the name of the United States military offensive in Iran which began on February 28, during a campaign meeting for the Republican camp.

A large-scale war would involve “Iranian retaliatory attacks against energy infrastructure” and would boost black gold prices, believes Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, analyst at Global Risk Management. “Diplomatic initiatives may cause temporary price drops,” notes the analyst, but “we maintain our high price scenario for a long time.” Furthermore, in Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition is ahead of the opposition bloc on Wednesday but no government majority is emerging, after the counting of two-thirds of the votes cast during the legislative elections.

Iran warned on Wednesday of the "devastating impact" that a new attack in the region would have on the markets, after an increase in Israeli threats against Tehran in recent days. European gas is also up on Wednesday. Its benchmark on the markets, the Dutch TTF futures contract reached a new high since 2022 at 98.28 euros per megawatt hour with stocks remaining low below previous years as winter approaches, particularly in Germany.

Machine-translated from French