Trump took an electoral beating, will the end of customs duties soon? Nothing is less certain and Goldman Sachs even sees the situation getting worse

Donald Trump has just suffered a crushing electoral defeat. Following the November 3 elections, the Democratic Party now has a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives. The White House has lost control of Congress, the American parliament.

The American president's capacity for action will therefore be reduced for his last two years in office, but he will not lose all his power. For Europe, which has been particularly targeted since 2025, particularly in the area of ​​customs duties, this is not the end of the hassle. “We must prepare not for more harmonious transatlantic relations, but for more acrimony and even stronger demands from Trump towards Europe,” fears German diplomat Wolfgang Ischinger to Politico.

Constrained on domestic policy, likely targeted by a multitude of Congressional investigations, Donald Trump risks using his broad powers to the fullest on the international scene. And the Democrats' means to prevent it will be reduced. “A Congress with a Democratic majority will have only a limited capacity to prevent a resumption of hostilities with Iran in the short term,” anticipate Allianz analysts in a note, estimating that a new escalation of the conflict could further increase oil prices to 130 dollars per barrel.

Customs tariffs should not disappear as if by magic either, especially since the European Union has accepted a lasting increase in taxes on its exports to the United States, by signing a trade agreement with Washington. “Trade policy is the most glaring example of continuity and an area where the Trump administration has failed to seek congressional approval. (...

) The administration will retain the power to apply customs duties and other trade measures thanks to its current executive prerogatives, unless challenged before the Supreme Court", observe analysts from the Lombard Odier bank. In this matter, the blockage will be more judicial than legislative. "Mister Veto" The Democrats should, however, try to tackle it as soon as they take office in January.

In the first 100 hours, Hakeem Jeffries, tipped to chair the House of Representatives, intends to table a bill aimed in particular at putting an end to the customs duties put in place by Donald Trump, according to the New York Times. But that will undoubtedly be easier said than done. Even if this bill passes, Donald Trump will have a veto to block it.

And he has already warned that he will not fail to use it. "I have the ultimate power, it's called the veto," he told CBS, indicating he wouldn't mind being nicknamed "Mister Veto." Congress can override this, provided it obtains a two-thirds majority in both chambers, which would require Republican elected officials to rally behind their Democratic opponents to outvote their leader.

Machine-translated from French