PPI inflation weaker than expected in the USA: Bitcoin and gold rebound

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released this Friday, November 13, the update for the month of October of the Producer Price Index (PPI). The indicator, which measures inflation in producers' selling prices, stands at +0.3% over the month, compared to +0.4% expected by the consensus.

Over a rolling year, the Producer Price Index increased by 6.5%, again slightly below the 6.6% anticipated. The Core PPI sub-index, which excludes food and energy (more volatile), comes out perfectly in line with forecasts, at respectively +0.3% over the month and +5% over a rolling year.

This slowdown takes on its full meaning in view of the previous month. In September, PPI inflation jumped 1.3% month-on-month, its biggest monthly increase since March 2022, and Core PPI rose 0.7%. The increase to +0.3% in October therefore marks a clear deceleration in the rate of increase in producers' selling prices, in addition to being a figure slightly below the consensus. It is this contrast with the shock of September which partly explains the favorable reception of the markets.

The real issue behind this PPI inflation is the monetary policy expectations of the American Federal Reserve. Before the publication of the Producer Price Index, the CME Group's FedWatch tool included 100% of a Fed rate hike at its December 8-9 meeting. About 84% of odds focused on a 25 basis point hike, compared to about 16% for a more aggressive 50 basis point hike.

After today's publication of producer prices, these probabilities have barely changed (around 86% versus 14%), but the central scenario therefore leans a little more clearly towards an increase of 25 basis points, in a range of 4 to 4.25% (compared to 3.75 to 4% currently).

As a reminder, earlier in the week, hotter than expected CPI inflation (on consumer prices) had a negative impact on the crypto markets by reviving the scenario of more muscular monetary tightening by the Fed.

The small lull in PPI inflation caused a muted reaction in the cryptocurrency market. The price of Bitcoin (BTC) briefly approached $70,000 after the PPI was published, before falling slightly at the time of writing.

The upheaval, however, was not limited to Bitcoin and cryptos. Indeed, gold, another thermometer of inflation and monetary expectations, briefly traded above $3,900 per ounce (around 31.1 g of pure gold) after the publication of the PPI, with a gain of almost 1% over 24 hours. However, the yellow metal has already returned just below it at the time of writing, and it remains far from the threshold of $4,100 that it had lost earlier in the week.

PPI inflation seems to have only brought a brief respite to nervous markets, which are now mainly awaiting the Fed's decision at its next meeting on December 9, 2026.

On the same subject – Bitcoin below $80,000 after the Fed: will the $79,500 give way?

With markets hanging on Fed decisions, taking stock of your Bitcoin investment strategy can help stay on course.

Already intrigued by Bitcoin and blockchain technology in 2013, I professionalized myself in the sector by becoming, since 2018, an editor specializing in crypto news. I followed the cryptosphere through its cycles, from early amateur mining to the gradual structuring of the sector. Now independent, I cover crypto news, financial markets and regulation.

The site that explains everything from A to Z about Bitcoin, blockchain and cryptocurrencies. News and explanatory articles to discover and progress in these sectors!

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