+35% for the RSA, +80% for the elderly... Departmental social spending risks exploding by 26 billion euros by 2040

Departmental social spending could reach 71 billion euros in 2040 compared to 45 billion in 2025, an increase of almost 60% due to aging, child protection needs and prices of services, according to a report published Monday. The social expenditure of the departments now represents 70% of their operating expenditure and includes the RSA, social assistance for children (ASE), as well as aid for the elderly and people with disabilities. The ASE, the leading item of departmental social expenditure since 2024 with 80% of the budget devoted to childcare, would remain in the lead in 2040, according to a report from the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE) for the association Départements solidaires.

Its budget would increase from 12.2 billion euros to 20.1 billion, an increase of 65% due to the progression of reception measures implemented, despite a declining demographics. Sharp increase for the elderly Expenditure devoted to the elderly would record the largest increase, from 9.7 to 17.4 billion euros (+80%), under the effect of aging and the largest increase in reception assistance, more costly than home help. Aid for disabled people would increase from 11.4 to 17.9 billion euros (+57.3%), due to the higher cost of institutional care.

Expenditures linked to the fight against poverty (RSA) would increase from 11.7 to 15.7 billion euros, an increase of +35% in value, while their weight in the economy would decline from 0.39% to 0.35% of GDP, the authors assuming a more favorable labor market. Compared to national wealth, social spending would however only increase by 0.08 point of GDP, economists qualify, while recalling that the departments control neither the eligibility criteria nor the amounts they must distribute. “The situation in the departments is deteriorating at high speed.

There are already those who have taken the wall, those who will take it this year, and those who will take it in two or three years,” reacted Michel Ménard, PS president of Département Solidaires, denouncing the “removal of all fiscal autonomy” from the departments. One of the main drivers of these increases lies in the increase in the prices of social services, linked in particular to salary increases. The authors also warn of the adaptation difficulties that the departments will face.

“The workforce will have to switch from one sector to another, be recruited or trained accordingly, investments or reconversions of existing structures will have to be undertaken,” they explain.

Machine-translated from French