The million will wait: Michael Saylor sees Bitcoin at (only) six figures

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The executive president of Strategy speaks while the price is moving below this threshold and his company has more than 650,000 bitcoins on its balance sheet. Between these two data lies the entire mechanism of financing the largest bitcoin treasury listed on the stock exchange.

But Michael Saylor usually speaks in millions. His public target remains $13 million per bitcoin by 2045, the central figure of the model he rolls out from conference to conference from Nashville. Here he is defending a simple crossing of 100,000 dollars, in a sentence relayed on social networks: “Bitcoin should definitely return to six figures”.

The exercise is nothing new for him. In the fall of 2022, Strategy had a cost price of around $30,000 per bitcoin for a price that had fallen to $15,600, and its founder was already speaking out multiple times to defend his line. The group got through the episode without liquidating its cash flow. Four years later, the position has increased almost five-fold.

These six figures, however, have a very concrete accounting translation at Strategy. With an average cost price around $74,000, the company remains in latent capital gain as long as the price remains above this level, and its discourse becomes significantly more complicated as soon as the gap narrows. MSTR stock has long traded at a comfortable premium on the value of its bitcoins, a premium which melted over 2025.

The financing of the building is now largely based on preferred shares (STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC) which pay dividends in cash. This coupon drops every quarter. To honor it without touching the bitcoins, the company must issue new ordinary shares.

Everything then depends on the mNAV (which we recall that it measures the ratio between the market capitalization and the value of the bitcoins held, and that a ratio less than 1 transforms each issue into pure dilution for existing shareholders). A six-figure price puts some air in this ratio, therefore in the 42/42 plan which provides for 84 billion dollars raised by the end of 2027.

The market is no longer limited to this balance sheet alone. American spot Bitcoin ETFs have managed more than a million BTC since their launch in January 2024, and their daily flows weigh more on the price than the purchases of a company, even the most greedy of the lot. Michael Saylor knows it: his six-figure appeal is aimed as much at the shareholders of Strategy as at the managers of BlackRock and Fidelity.

Strategy paid $11,653 per bitcoin for its first bitcoins in August 2020, for a bill of $250 million. The threshold that its executive president defends today is more than eight times above this entry price. So, when do you think the six figures will return?

Machine-translated from French