Midterms 2026: the 5 ballots that will decide the fate of crypto in Congress

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Fairshake and its affiliates have committed $154 million to their candidates, according to a spokesperson cited by CoinDesk on November 1. The super PAC (political action committee authorized to spend without ceiling, regardless of campaigns) is still keeping 56 million aside for the 2028 cycle. Same maneuver as two years ago.

Two more crates followed. The Winklevoss brothers' Digital Freedom Fund committed more than $8 million in October to block Democrats in Ohio, Texas and Iowa. The Fellowship Fund, financed by Cantor Fitzgerald and close to Tether, had paid 3.8 million to Republicans, including Ken Paxton, before adding $600,000 for three outgoing Democrats. Half went to Ritchie Torres, the most enthusiastic New York elected official in his party on the subject.

“Fairshake has always been and always will be an issue-focused organization,” says its spokesperson Geoff Vetter. “We support pro-crypto candidates in both parties. » The problem is with the Senate numbers. The Republicans hold 53 seats, the Democrats 45 plus two independents, and they need four net gains to swing. The North Carolina seat vacated by Thom Tillis is already almost theirs. There are three left to win, without losing Michigan, among the states classified “tossup” by the Cook Political Report.

The odds below are those recorded on Sunday on Kalshi and Polymarket, the poll averages those of RealClearPolitics. Check again during the day, these markets move quickly.

Susan Collins' Kansas and Maine complete the list of Republican seats under threat. Three swings in addition to North Carolina, Michigan retained, and the Senate changed hands.

Sherrod Brown chaired the Senate Banking Committee before his 2024 defeat, a campaign where Fairshake had already spent around forty million. It was from this perch that he blocked all market structure laws. His return would give him a seat on this committee at a time when the Clarity Act, passed by the House in July 2025, is still awaiting the Senate.

Predictive markets are not infallible. Polls measure intent, odds measure where bettors' money is going, and both point in the same direction this time. The industry bet against the trend. Kalshi had a roughly 70% chance of an all-Democratic Congress on Sunday evening.

The Ohio offices close at 1:30 a.m. Paris time, those in Alaska around 6 a.m. Whatever the outcome, Fairshake enters 2027 with $56 million in cash, and a Democratic Senate will have to deal with a lobby that has already proven it knows how to bring down a committee chair.

Falling down the white rabbit hole in 2017, I went from avid reader to Editor-in-Chief of Journal du Coin. I like to get involved behind the scenes of projects to bring my vision of a decentralized future. A lover of beautiful letters, I coordinate our teams to transform technical complexity into human, precise information without unnecessary jargon. Between entrepreneurship and writing, my mission is clear: popularize tomorrow, but do it today.

Machine-translated from French