Bitcoin: will $79,500 resist the Fed this Wednesday?

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Hello everyone, this is Wil, founder of Crypto Stratège, Cryptoast's support service. Since its September 21 peak at $87,400, Bitcoin has been moving in a bearish channel whose bounds continue to frame price movements. After several weeks of correction, BTC now finds itself in contact with the lower part of this structure, around $80,000.

In my analysis of October 15, I identified the area of ​​$79,500 to $80,500 as the last bastion likely to contain the correction. Two weeks later, this support continues to play its role, but its resistance is tested.

The session of October 27 perfectly illustrates this hesitation. Bitcoin briefly fell below the lower bound of its channel, all the way to $79,384, before re-entering the structure and ending the day at $80,811, near its high.

This is the 3rd breakout attempt in four sessions. Each time, the sellers managed to push the price below the channel, without succeeding in confirming their movement at the daily close. These three rejections show that buyers are still defending the $79,500 zone. However, their inability to regain $81,200 prevents, for the moment, talk of a real bullish reversal.

The price of Bitcoin is moving around $80,838 on October 28, up 1.57% over 24 hours, but down 2.86% over one month. It is still about 35.9% from its all-time high in October 2025.

This technical situation comes at a particularly sensitive moment in the macroeconomic calendar. This Wednesday, October 28, the American Federal Reserve must announce its decision on key rates at 7 p.m. Paris time. The press conference of its president, Kevin Warsh, will follow at 7:30 p.m.

Investors largely seem to anticipate a status quo. According to the CME's FedWatch tool, its probability reached approximately 93% on the morning of October 28. But it is above all the speech of the president of the Fed which could make the markets react.

Expectations for the December meeting have gradually hardened, with the probability of a rate hike estimated at around 84%. Investors will therefore seek to determine whether Kevin Warsh confirms this outlook or suggests a less restrictive monetary policy. And the Fed will not be the only important meeting of the week.

As of Thursday, October 29, at 1:30 p.m., the United States will publish two major statistics: the first estimate of third-quarter growth and the September PCE inflation index. The latter, particularly followed by the Fed, is expected at 3.6% over one year, compared to 3.4% in August. Higher-than-expected inflation could reinforce expectations of monetary tightening and weigh on risky assets.

Machine-translated from French