Middle East: oil prices fall in the face of diplomatic efforts

Crude prices fell further on Tuesday, as the market gauged diplomatic efforts in the Middle East, while monitoring clashes between Yemen's Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition. The price of a barrel of Brent from the North Sea, for delivery in December, lost 1.67% to $113.88. Its American equivalent, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate, for delivery the same month, dropped 1.83% to $99.90.

Qatar's Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian took stock of the Middle East conflict on Tuesday, on the sidelines of the summit of gas exporting countries in Moscow, Doha said. The meeting took place the day after a visit to Tehran by senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey, aimed at discussing ways to prevent a return to regional clashes, after a series of Israeli-American threats against Tehran. These diplomatic exchanges offer some respite to crude prices, because “a credible agreement could quickly erode part of oil’s geopolitical risk premium,” explain analysts at Standard Chartered.

“A decisive breakthrough in the negotiations seems unlikely,” however, believe analysts at Eurasia Group. “The mediators continue their action, but little progress has been made. » Fear of a new American offensive In addition, the decline in crude oil “comes in a context where there are fears that the Trump administration is preparing the American army for a large-scale attack against Iran, which would take place after the mid-term elections” in the United States next week, notes David Morrison, of the broker Trade Nation.

The American army would indeed be ready to launch new potentially major military operations against Iran within 96 hours of receiving an order from the American president, the American channel CNN indicated, citing two American officials. At the same time, hostilities between Yemen's Houthi rebels and the Saudi-led coalition continue to add risk to deliveries from the world's largest oil exporter. Yemen's pro-Iranian Houthis said Tuesday they had targeted the country's largest oil refinery.

Their strikes on the kingdom's civil and military infrastructure have become almost daily.

Machine-translated from French