Lula re-elected: the real collapses by 10%, USDT soars in Brazil

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According to InfoMoney , the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ) was down 18.5% in after-hours trading Sunday evening. The Mix Vale site recorded a low of -19.6%. The ADR Petrobras (PBR) lost up to 12% and that of Itaú almost 14%.

November real futures plunged 10.6% on the CME around 9:50 p.m. Brasília time, according to Money Times. At the worst of the night, the currency even dropped up to 12%, according to CNN Brasil. This level implies a dollar around 5.50 reais, compared to 4.99 reais at Friday's close.

Be careful, however: these Sunday sessions, which are not very liquid, widen the gaps. The real test therefore arrives this Monday, at the opening of the B3 exchanges (1 p.m. in Paris). Marcos Weight, of Travelex Bank, expects a dollar above 5.30 reais at the opening. It also provides for intervention by the Central Bank.

That same morning, Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro around an 80% chance, according to Bitcoin.com News. The odds reversed around 6 p.m., with the publication of the first results.

Crypto platforms never close. On Sunday evening, Livecoins raised USDT to 5.42 reais on Brazilian platforms. However, the last official rate of the dollar was 4.98. A tweet from the same media showed 5.23 reais, because the quotes varied greatly depending on the time and platform.

Decentralized finance reacted even stronger. On Hyperliquid, the perpetual contract that tracks the EWZ ETF fell more than 22%, according to Cryptonews. He did not wait for Wall Street to reopen.

This reflex is nothing new. The Receita Federal estimated in July that stablecoins account for around 80% of the crypto volume declared in the country, compared to 3.5% in 2019. Do you want dollars on a Sunday at 11 p.m.? In Brazil, this is done from an application, as the JDC already reported in 2023.

Bitcoin remains wise in dollars. It is hovering around $80,000 this Monday morning, down slightly over 24 hours according to CoinGecko. On the other hand, a weakened real mechanically increases its price in local currency, towards 440,000 reais. Those who had already switched their reais to USDT therefore lost nothing in dollars.

The figures from the Superior Electoral Tribunal (TSE) are clear. Lula obtained 51.79% of the votes cast, or 64.26 million votes, against 48.21% for Flávio Bolsonaro, a difference of approximately 4.4 million votes.

However, the Liberal Party senator led 47% to 45% in the first round on October 4. He remained in front on Sunday evening for a good part of the counting. Lula only overtook him at 8:26 p.m. Brasília time, and the TSE confirmed his victory shortly after 9 p.m.

Machine-translated from French