Victim of a drop in exports, GDP fell by 0.1% in the third quarter of 2026 in France, according to INSEE

While demonstrations against the high cost of living have increased since mid-October, France's gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1% in the third quarter, after stagnating in the second quarter and falling by 0.2% in the first, the National Institute of Statistics (Insee) announced on Friday October 30. In total, the “growth carryover” at the end of the third quarter, that is to say what growth would be over the year if GDP remained stable in the fourth quarter, is 0.2%. Enough to make difficult the 0.5% still predicted by the government, and even the 0.4% anticipated by the National Institute of Statistics itself and the Bank of France.

“In 2026, the French economy is at a standstill due to an unprecedented combination of external and internal shocks,” lamented Friday on franceinfo Roland Lescure, Minister of the Economy and Finance. “It has been three quarters that growth has not been there,” underlined the minister. “What was missing in the third quarter”, according to the Minister of the Economy, is linked “to the drop in agricultural production due to the heatwave and the drop in energy production”.

“We need [growth] to restart,” said Roland Lescure, according to whom “we need to restore confidence and for that, having a budget is essential.” Also read Budget 2027: growth, debt, deficit, unemployment… What is the economic situation in France? The decline in activity is mainly explained by a sharp contraction in exports – after a drop of 1.7% despite an increase of 2.8% in the second quarter –, particularly in transport equipment – ​​with a drop of 9.

1% despite the increase of 20.8% in the second quarter – particularly aeronautics. Imports, for their part, remained almost stable, with a modest increase of 0.1%, all resulting in a negative contribution of 0.6 points from foreign trade to growth in the third quarter. Household consumption increased over the quarter, however final domestic demand attenuated this decline.

Household consumption increased over the quarter by 0.4% after an increase of 0.2% in the spring, driven in particular by purchases of electric vehicles, the rebound in energy expenditure and the increase in consumption of services, particularly in accommodation and catering and leisure. Public administration consumption also increased by 0.3%. Conversely, investment fell further, marked by a drop of 0.6, in particular due to a drop in investment in construction (-0.5%), while investment in manufactured products fell by 1.9%, particularly investment in transport equipment.

In total, domestic demand contributed +0.1 point to GDP growth in the third quarter. On the supply side, manufacturing production contracted by 1.4%, with a marked drop in transport equipment (-3.5%) and agri-food (-1.5%). Construction is also declining (-0.4%).

Machine-translated from French