A duel between the countries of the North and those of the South of Europe: the succession of Christine Lagarde at the head of the ECB will be played out between the Spaniard Pablo Hernandez de Cos and the Dutchman Klaas Knot

A Spaniard or a Dutchman at the head of the European Central Bank? The succession of Christine Lagarde in Frankfurt will be played out between the Spaniard Pablo Hernandez de Cos and the Dutchman Klaas Knot, both former governors of the central bank of their respective countries. The candidacies of the two men were confirmed by the president of the Eurogroup, Kyriakos Pierrakakis.

The 21 member countries of the euro zone had until Friday, November 6 to submit their applications, which will be examined by the finance ministers of the euro zone on Monday in Brussels. They will be responsible for recommending a name to their heads of state and government, who will make the final decision, after consulting the European Parliament and the board of governors of the Frankfurt institution. Ministers should not make their choice on Monday.

“The idea is to see where things stand, and member countries want to make sure they understand the process,” a European official said on Wednesday. Tight timetable The timetable is particularly tight, with a decision expected by the end of the year, in the best case scenario during one of the two European summits scheduled this month, or during the one scheduled for December. “Ideally, we would like everything to be settled in December,” explained the European official, without being able to completely rule out a later appointment.

The two men had been the big favorites for months to succeed Christine Lagarde. Klaas Knot, 59, was the head of the Dutch Central Bank from 2011 to 2025, while Pablo Hernandez de Cos, 55, chaired the Bank of Spain from 2018 to 2024, and since last year has headed the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), a prestigious financial body based in Basel, Switzerland. Behind the scenes, some present this duel as a new match between the countries of Northern Europe, traditionally adept at a stricter monetary policy to contain inflation, and those of the South, more favorable to measures to support the economy and employment.

But the two candidates have both been able to demonstrate pragmatism throughout their careers. Their ability to navigate in times of crisis will be scrutinized, as will their ability to communicate clearly to the financial markets, any declaration emanating from the central bank potentially causing turmoil. Among Klaas Knot's supporters, we believe that it is time for a northern country to regain the presidency of the ECB, occupied since 2003 by two French people and an Italian (Jean-Claude Trichet, Mario Draghi and Christine Lagarde).

For its part, Madrid highlights the “exceptional” career of its candidate, who demonstrated “his ability to lead, his independence and his openness to dialogue”, according to Spanish Minister Carlos Cuerpo. If the major countries were unable to decide between them, a surprise candidate could emerge, as was the case in 2019 with the appointment of Christine Lagarde. Tensions on the markets The Frenchwoman announced at the end of October her early departure from the presidency of the ECB, which will be effective in February 2027, thus opening a succession battle amid tensions on the markets, and against a backdrop of high inflation due to the conflict with Iran.

Machine-translated from French