Fed, ECB, Bank of Japan: the 3 announcements that could move Bitcoin
Three central banks, three major decisions for Bitcoin this week. Between Wednesday and Friday, the Fed, ECB and Bank of Japan will announce their interest rate decisions. While a status quo is expected, their outlook…
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Three central banks, three decisions likely to move Bitcoin this week. Between Wednesday and Friday, the US Federal Reserve (Fed), the European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of Japan are expected to keep their rates unchanged. But their outlook for December could cause volatility in the markets.
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First meeting Wednesday at 7 p.m. Paris time with the Fed. Its president, Kevin Warsh, will speak at 7:30 p.m. US rates are currently between 3.75% and 4%, after increasing by 0.25 points in September.
According to a Reuters survey, 94 out of 100 economists anticipate a status quo on Wednesday, but all expect a further increase in December. Warsh's speech will therefore be decisive.
A firmer tone than expected could strengthen the dollar and US bond yields, generally unfavorable for risky assets like BTC. The Dollar Index is already moving around 102 points, close to its annual high of 102.95.
On Thursday at 2:15 p.m., the ECB is expected to maintain its deposit rate at 2.50%. Christine Lagarde will speak at 2:45 p.m., while inflation in the euro zone reached 3.8% in September.
The situation remains delicate for Frankfurt, between persistent inflation and tensions on the French debt. Earlier, at 1:30 p.m., the United States will release its 3rd quarter GDP and the September PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation indicator. Two publications likely to provoke movements even before the European decision.
On Friday, the Bank of Japan is expected to keep its rate at 1.25%, while suggesting a further increase in December. Investors will particularly monitor the yen carry trade, a strategy consisting of borrowing yen at low cost to finance other investments.
A rise in Japanese rates could lead to the unwinding of these positions, with possible repercussions on cryptocurrencies.
The price of Bitcoin is trading around $80,000, after briefly falling below this threshold over the weekend.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $773 million in net outflows on October 22-23. Another factor of volatility: around $11 billion of BTC options expire on Deribit on Friday, just as the Bank of Japan will announce its decision. Enough to make this weekend particularly sensitive to monetary surprises.
To know when to enter and exit the market in such a volatile context, Crypto Stratège offers a free 45-minute assessment.
Machine-translated from French
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