Alphabet set to report Q3 earnings after the bell as shaky AI trade looks for signs of strength

Alphabet is set to report third-quarter results after the bell on Wednesday.

Here's what analysts expect, according to a consensus of estimates compiled by LSEG:

Revenue is expected to increase 25% from a year earlier, which would mark the fastest rate of growth for any period since 2021.

Still, the report arrives at a skittish moment on Wall Street, with investors growing more concerned about the costs tied to the artificial intelligence buildout.

Shares of the Google parent have dropped in five of the past six sessions through Tuesday and are down about 7% in October. In July, the company lifted its full-year forecast for capital expenditures to between $195 billion and $205 billion, up from prior guidance of as much as $190 billion. At the same time, the company reported negative free cash flow for the first time.

For the third quarter, analysts are expecting Alphabet to show capex growth of 130% from a year earlier to $55.2 billion, according to FactSet. Annual capex is expected to top $200 billion before exceeding $300 billion in 2027.

Meanwhile, analysts see negative free cash flow of $2.27 billion in the third quarter, and expect that gulf to widen for each of the next four quarters.

As Google continues to open its wallet to fuel expansion, it's getting rewarded with revenue growth in its cloud division, home to its AI offerings. The company is projected to show cloud growth of 90% to $28.7 billion, as Google continues taking market share from larger rivals Amazon Web Services and Microsoft Azure. Microsoft also reports earnings on Wednesday, followed by Amazon on Thursday.

Google is aggressively adding its Gemini models and services to its enterprise offerings, and is also ramping up sales of its custom tensor processing units (TPUs), which compete with Nvidia's graphics processing units (GPUs). At the same time, Google's core business is under pressure from OpenAI and Anthropic as well as from a blitz of new agents on the market.

"Google continues to be well-positioned across AI," analysts at Citizens – who recommend buying the stock – wrote in a report last week. "That said, execution risk exists, and we are incrementally cautious on Search as we believe competition is increasing with agents and requires another pivot."

Company executives are scheduled to hold a conference call with analysts at 4:30 p.m. ET.

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