Visualize French growth in 2026

Will French growth manage to resist the prevailing economic gloom? The first figures from the national accounts, published this Friday morning by INSEE, provide an unequivocally negative answer. Gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.1%, after stagnation in the second quarter and a drop of 0.2% in the first quarter.

A result significantly lower than INSEE's expectations, which predicted a slight increase of 0.1%. Growth at half mast in the third quarter Since the start of the conflict in the Middle East, the government and economists have continued to lower their growth forecasts for 2026. Thus, the government lowered its growth forecast for 2026, dropping it from 0.7% to 0.5%.

However, he anticipates a rebound to 1% in 2027, “driven by the gradual dissipation of the effects of the energy shock, under the hypothesis of a de-escalation of the conflict in the Near and Middle East in the fall and a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz”, we can read in the trajectory presented in the draft budget for 2027. Caution in the face of war in the Middle East? Same trend for the Bank of France.

Faced with these uncertainties, the institution now only forecasts growth of 0.4% in 2026, a downward revision of 0.1 point compared to its June projections and 0.4 point compared to those of March. “Over the whole of 2026, the weak increase in household consumption would weigh on activity,” she explains. Growth would then recover to reach 0.9% in 2027.

The French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE) anticipates a more lasting weakness in activity: after growth of 0.4% in 2026, GDP would only increase by 0.5% in 2027.

Machine-translated from French