With macroeconomic forecasts no longer holding up, what is the point of discussions in the chamber on the budget?

What is the point of discussing a text that is no longer in line with reality? The government's finance bill was designed a few months ago, at the beginning of summer, with indicators which appear to be totally erroneous because they are far too optimistic, Monday November 2. Growth declined in the third quarter and became negative, although to construct its budget, the government based itself on positive growth figures.

Roland Lescure, the Minister of the Economy, even recognized that from now on "the French economy is at a standstill". A strong gap also with inflationIdem for the price of fuel. In June-July, the authors of the budget thought that the war in the Middle East would calm down and that the barrel would drop to a price of around 80-90 dollars.

But it's wasted effort: today, we are well above 100 dollars, 110 even on Monday, which means that the rise in prices on other products is not calming down. Furthermore, according to INSEE, inflation is racing, reaching 3.4% in October, while the State was counting on a little more than 2% for this fall, and a decline to 1.7% next year. All this obviously changes the situation because if we follow the real indicators, as it stands, the already ambitious objective of reducing France's deficit to 5% in 2027 is impossible.

Unless you review the copy to find much more than the fifty billion euros of savings contained in the text currently being discussed in the hemicycle. A rising borrowing rate which further worsens the picture. Just the surge in interest rates on our debt represents more than 10 billion euros which are weighing down the budget. Here too, Sébastien Lecornu had anticipated ten-year rates at 4.2% this year, 4.3% next year...

We are almost one more point away. And yet, the discussion continues as if nothing had happened, or almost. Faced with the slippage in the accounts, the Ministry of the Economy mentions new estimates to come.

But given the tense content of the debates in the National Assembly, there is no question of imposing efforts at first reading. Moreover, the social crisis does not seem to greatly disrupt the exchanges between the deputies, while the announcements made to high school students or workers will have to be budgeted well. This will mean cutting back on other spending areas.

Finally, Sébastien Lecornu acts as if he was going to obtain a majority to adopt his budget. But no one believes it. In the absence of a majority, it will be either a 49.

3, i.e. the passage by orders.

Machine-translated from French