ECB Consumer Expectations Survey results – September 2026

In September the median rate of perceived inflation over the previous 12 months increased to 3.6% from 3.5% in August. Median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months also increased, to 3.1% from 3.0%. Median expectations for inflation three years ahead and median expectations for inflation five years ahead were unchanged at 2.9% and 2.5% respectively. Uncertainty about expectations for inflation over the next 12 months increased slightly, remaining higher than the level prior to the start of the conflict in the Middle East. Respondents in the bottom income quintile continued to report higher inflation perceptions and expectations, on average, than those in the top quintile. Younger respondents (aged 18-34) continued to report lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older respondents (aged 35-54 and 55-70).

Consumers’ expectations for nominal income growth over the next 12 months increased to 1.1% in September from 1.0% in August. As in previous months expectations were, on average, higher in the bottom income quintile (1.5%) than in the top quintile (1.2%). Perceived nominal spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.3% from 5.2%, while expected nominal spending growth over the next 12 months increased to 3.7% from 3.6%.

Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months decreased in September to -1.5%, from -1.2% in August. Expectations for the unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased to 11.3%, from 11.0%. As observed in previous months, households in the bottom income quintile expected the highest unemployment rate 12 months ahead (13.6%), while households in the top income quintile expected the lowest rate (9.7%). Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.

Consumers expected the price of their home to increase by 3.5% over the next 12 months, higher than in August (3.4%). As in previous months expectations for home price growth over the next 12 months remained, on average, higher in the lowest income quintile (4.0%) than in the highest income quintile (3.2%). Expectations for mortgage interest rates in 12 months’ time remained unchanged from July, at 4.9%. As in previous months, households in the top income quintile expected the lowest mortgage interest rates 12 months ahead (4.4%), while those in the bottom quintile expected the highest rates (5.7%). The net percentage of households reporting a tightening (relative to those reporting an easing) of access to credit over the previous 12 months increased compared with August, as did the net percentage of households expecting tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months (relative to those expecting an easing).

The microdata underlying the aggregate results are available in the Data and methodological information section of the ECB Consumer Expectations Survey (CES) web page.