Bitcoin facing the American paradox: More growth, less hope of low rates

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The figure fell on October 29. According to the first estimate from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, American GDP grew by 3.4% at an annualized rate in the third quarter, driven by investment (inventories and computer equipment in the lead), household consumption and public spending. The consensus expected 3.2%, the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow 3.3%. This model runs without human intervention: since 2014, it has provided an estimate of the current quarter (GDP for Gross Domestic Product, GDP) recalculated six to seven times per month, based on retail sales, the trade balance, construction expenditure and ISM surveys. No economist adds their judgment: the algorithm aggregates the statistics already published and converts them into growth rates.

You still have to read the number correctly. The United States publishes its growth at an annualized rate (which it should be remembered that it corresponds to the rate that the entire year would reach if the quarter were repeated four times in a row), whereas INSEE and Eurostat stick to the variation from one quarter to the next. Translated into European language, this 3.4% becomes approximately 0.8% over the quarter.

For the fourth quarter, GDPNow already shows 3.2%, a figure to be taken with a pinch of salt. In the first quarter of 2025, massive gold imports intended to preempt Donald Trump's tariffs had pushed the estimate into negative territory, to the point of forcing the Atlanta Fed to publish a corrected version of these flows. The first weeks of a trimester remain the most fragile. The margin for error tightens as actual data replaces model assumptions.

An economy moving forward at this rate does not require relief. On October 28, the Fed also maintained its key rates between 3.75 and 4%. The mandate of the American central bank is based on two objectives, full employment and price stability, and neither calls for rapid easing when activity exceeds 3%. Traders who were betting on a burst of rate cuts are reviewing their timetable, the dollar is holding up, and the assets most sensitive to the cost of money are taking the hit.

Machine-translated from French