Growth revised upwards, unemployment falling and a deficit disappearing... Unlike France, the United Kingdom surprises with the resilience of its economy and receives congratulations from the IMF

It's nothing to blow your mind over, but it's still a performance that deserves to be highlighted in these times. Despite the war in the Middle East and its consequences on inflation (3.5% in September across the Channel), the British economy seems to have regained some momentum in recent months, unlike the neighboring French economy which is slipping. After years of economic conditions deteriorated sometimes by Brexit, sometimes by Covid, the United Kingdom, which was more notable for slowing down activity and low productivity, is now establishing itself as one of the most resilient advanced economies.

Judge for yourself: despite slumping consumption, its growth in August increased by 0.1%, after +0.4% in July, much better than what economists predicted (-0.1% in August). The growth in GDP across the Channel was even the strongest among the G7 countries in the first half. While it rose to 1.8% year-on-year in the three months preceding August.

Unheard of since 2022. Taking into account this unexpected improvement, the IMF has just revised upwards its growth forecast for the year 2026. The Washington institution is now counting on an increase in British GDP of 1.3% this year (+0.3 points), compared to only 0.4% for France.

The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), the body responsible for monitoring public finances in the United Kingdom, did the same with a forecast now set at 1.2%, compared to 1.1% until then. Artificial intelligence and resilience While certain sectors are still suffering from the international context, others, such as services or the manufacturing industry, have established themselves as the engines of growth in the United Kingdom by resisting inflationary pressures better than expected. No doubt because they were able to learn lessons from past experiences, according to the Financial Times which notes that "many companies had already reduced their debt and built up reserves to face new shocks, in particular by signing longer-term energy contracts".

“We have experienced war, plague and everything else, including Brexit… We have had to adapt to so many things in recent years,” summarizes Simon Kenney, managing director of Goodfellow, a company specializing in the supply of advanced materials, to the business daily. The average growth of the United Kingdom exceeds that of France in the 21st century In recent years, the British economy has gradually outpaced the French economy, even if the two economies remain close. According to a note from the Directorate General of the , growth across the Channel reached 1.5% on average between 2000 and 2024, compared to 1.2% in France.

Machine-translated from French