A key report for where inflation stood in October comes out Tuesday. Here's what to expect
The CPI headline reading is expected to show an increase of 0.3% while the core is forecast to increase 0.2%.
Falling gasoline prices provided some relief to consumers in October, but Federal Reserve officials are increasingly concerned that inflation pressures elsewhere in the economy are proving harder to contain.
Prices at the pump declined by more than 4%, according to the Energy Information Administration, providing a respite from a surge that had added more than a dollar a gallon over the past year.
However, the consumer price index for the month, which the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release Tuesday at 8:30 a.m., is expected to show only a slight let-up.
Meanwhile, Fed officials say they are worried that inflation initially driven higher by President Donald Trump 's tariffs and the Iran war is proving more persistent than expected, with price pressures emerging in sectors beyond those directly affected by the shocks.
At a time when the central bank is increasingly confident about the state of the labor market, concerns over the cost of living are what are top of mind for the Fed.
"We've been moving up to what historically we'd consider full employment, and the big problem has all been on the inflation side. We go around, we talk to people everywhere in this district, all we hear about is affordability on the business side, the cost," Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Monday during an event in his home district. "So we've got to come to terms with this cost-side and inflation-side failure."
The CPI reading for all items is expected to show an increase of 0.3%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy costs, is forecast to increase 0.2%, according to the Dow Jones consensus forecast. While both would be slower than the respective September monthly gains of 0.6% and 0.3%, they still represent further price pressures.
There will be no annual reading for October because of the government shutdown a year ago, which prevented the BLS from collecting some data and compiling a full index level. Because of the data issue, there isn't a comparable figure for the index.
Bank of America, using an assumed baseline interpolating data for the period last year, estimated the annual growth rates at 3.8% for headline and 2.7% for core, both 0.1 percentage point higher than September and well above the Fed's 2% goal.
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- CNBC9 Nov, 22:03
| Publisher CNBC (reference tier) | +82 |
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