Global oil supply exceeds demand for the first time since the start of the Iran war

For the first time since the start of the war between Israel and Iran, the world has more oil than it consumes. Gulf exports are picking up, while high prices are still holding back global consumption. And the barrels are coming back faster than needs, enough to lower prices.

Gulf oil exports have jumped to 74% of their pre-war level, driven by increased Saudi and Iraqi production.

This rebound in exports combined with signs indicating that Donald Trump could refrain from further military intervention in Iran reassures the markets and contributes to the fall in oil prices. “We don't need a deal with Iran. Those days are long gone,” the American head of state said on Thursday.

The price of Brent has fallen several times below the symbolic $90 mark in recent days. If the attacks continue in Saudi Arabia and in the Strait of Hormuz, petroleum products continue to be exported from the Gulf at the cost of crossings that are sometimes very expensive due to their dangerous nature.

Since the start of the month, the price of crude oil has fallen by 18%. Because if production is increasing, demand is not taking off as quickly. The price at the pump, still very high, slows down motorists' consumption and to this is added an increasingly marked enthusiasm for hybrid and electric cars.

And therefore, according to the IEA, in 2026 the world will have consumed almost three million barrels less per day than last year. Another factor likely to calm prices: a new session of discussions begins on the conflict between Ukraine and Russia. In addition to the two belligerents and the Americans, the Europeans will be represented by five countries, including France.

Follow all the international news by downloading the RFI application

Machine-translated from French